🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. As Rogers swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the side posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Potential for Growth

Could it be a different scenario where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.