A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
