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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent also-rans improving together. During an normal year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still